Bayesianadjustmentofgastriccancermortalityrateinthepresenceofmisclassification

摘要： AIMTocorrectformisclassificationerrorinregisteringcausesofdeathinIrandeathregistryusingBayesianmethod.METHODSNationaldeathstatisticfrom2006to2010forgastriccancerwhichreportedannuallybytheMinistryofHealthandMedicalEducationincludedinthisstudy.Tocorrecttherateofgastriccancermortalitywithreassigningthedeathsduetogastriccancerthatregisteredascancerwithoutdetail,aBayesianmethodwasimplementedwithPoissoncountregressionandbetapriorformisclassifiedparameter,assuming20%misclassificationinregisteringcausesofdeathinIran.RESULTSRegisteredmortalityduetogastriccancerfrom2006to2010wasconsideredinthisstudy.AccordingtotheBayesianre-estimate,about3%-7%ofdeathsduetogastriccancerhaveregisteredascancerwithoutmentioningdetails.ItmakesanundercountofgastriccancermortalityinIranianpopulation.Thenumberandagestandardizedrateofgastriccancerdeathisestimatedtobe5805(10.17per100000populations),5862(10.51per100000populations),5731(10.23per100000populations),5946(10.44per100000populations),and6002(10.35per100000populations),respectivelyforyears2006to2010.CONCLUSIONThereisanundercountingastriccancermortalityinIranianregistereddatathatresearchersandauthoritiesshouldnoticethatinsequentialestimationsandpolicymaking. ... （共6頁）